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Community Risk Information

 Population Analysis 

This section shows the population statistics for Derbyshire, the relative changes that have taken place over the last 25 years, and expected future changes. It shows areas of the county that have seen greatest population growth, changes in population of age range, but also where there are areas of greatest ethnic and language diversity.  These are all key base-line factors considered when undertaking community safety activities. 

The County of Derbyshire encompasses eight local authority areas and one unitary authority (UA) area. 

  • City of Derby (UA)
  • Amber Valley
  • Bolsover
  • Chesterfield
  • Derbyshire Dales
  • Erewash
  • High Peak
  • North East Derbyshire
  • South Derbyshire 

As a county, Derbyshire covers an area of 2,629 square kilometres (1,015 square miles) split by the nine constituent local authority areas, as outlined below:-  

IRMP_Community_Risk_01-520.png

Population

According to the Census 2011, the population of Derbyshire was 1,018,438 with an approximate average age of 52 years. 

In the decade between the Census 2011(1,018,438) and the Census 2001 (956,293), the population in Derbyshire increased as a whole by 62,145 (6.1%). 

In the decade between the Census 2001(956,293) and the Census 1991(928,805), the population in Derbyshire increased as a whole by 27,488 (2.9%) 

Mid-year population estimates (MYE) are published annually, for the preceding year by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). 

The current figure available is the 2015 MYE (published 27th June 2016) which, for Derbyshire as a whole is 1,036,616, an increase of 18.178 (1.8%) since the Census 2011 count.  

IRMP_Community_Risk_02-520.png

The rate of population growth between the Census 2001 and the Census 2011 in the City of Derby was +27,044 (10.9%). 

The rate of population growth between the Census 2001 and the Census 2011 in the county of Derbyshire (excluding the City of Derby) was +35,101 (4.6%)

The rate of population growth for each constituent local authority area within Derbyshire (excluding the City of Derby) between the 1991 Census; 2001 Census; 2011 Census and the current MYE 2015 figure is detailed below:-

IRMP_Community_Risk_03-520.png

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Gender L1

As at the Census 2011, there was roughly an even split in relation to gender, with women marginally accounting for over half the population, both within the City of Derby and the County of Derbyshire.

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Age Profile 

The proportion of the population aged 65 and over has risen in the decade from the Census 2001 to the Census 2011.  

In Derbyshire, this age group has risen from 158,872 (16.6%) of the population in 2001 to 180,560 (17.7%) of the population in 2011. 

The growing number of people aged 65 and over presents a significant challenge for all local authorities in relation to the provision of effective public services.  For the Fire & Rescue Service, they are deemed to be at heightened risk and therefore prioritised for Safe and Well Visits (SWVs). 

In contrast, the population aged 0 – 24 years has fallen by 0.3%.  

At the Census 2011, the total number of persons in the age range 0 – 24 years was 299,454 (29.4% of the total population).  At the Census 2001, the total number of persons in this age range was 284,168 (29.7% of the total population). 

29.4% of all properties are one person households – around the national average. 

12.8% of all households are occupied by a lone person over the age of 65 years. 

22.2% of all households contain someone aged 65 or over.

IRMP_Community_Risk_07-520.png

The table below provides a breakdown of the age profile for the City of Derby (UA), as at the Census 2011.

IRMP_Community_Risk_08-520.png

The table below provides a breakdown of the age profile for the constituent local authorities within the County of Derbyshire, as at the Census 2011. 

IRMP_Community_Risk_09-520.png 

Ethnicity 

The vast majority of the population of Derbyshire, as a whole, identify themselves as being White: British (924,420 people representing 90.8% of the population).  

IRMP_Community_Risk_10-520.png

However; there are a number of other ethnic minority groups that make up the population of the area, notably:- 

  • Asian/Asian British: Indian or British Indian (18,752 people; 1.8%)
  • Mixed/multiple ethnic group: White and Black Caribbean (14,080 people; 1.4%)
  • White: Irish (7,070 people; 0.7%)
  • White: Polish (5,967 people; 0.6%)
  • Mixed/multiple ethnic group: White and Asian (5,209 people; 0.5%)
  • Asian/Asian British: Chinese (4,755 people; 0.5%)

Historically, Polish and other Eastern European nationalities have comprised the majority of individuals migrating into Derbyshire, in addition to communities from India and Pakistan. 

This is reflected in the National Insurance Number (NiNo) - Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals Entering the UK data, which shows that from April 2011 to December 2014, the highest number of individuals entering Derbyshire were from Poland (3,635) and Slovak Republic (1,053) followed by India (943).

IRMP_Community_Risk_11-520.png

IRMP_Community_Risk_12-520.png 

Language 

In relation to language, the vast majority of residents, both in the City of Derby and the County of Derbyshire, aged 3 years and over, use English as their main language:- 

  • Derbyshire (City and County combined) – 93.3% 
  • City of Derby (UA) – 90.5% 
  • Derbyshire County – 98.7%

As a whole, the most commonly spoken languages in Derbyshire, other than English, are:

IRMP_Community_Risk_13-520.png

The most commonly spoken languages in the City of Derby (UA), other than English are: 

IRMP_Community_Risk_14-520.png

The most commonly spoken languages in the County of Derbyshire, other than English are: 

IRMP_Community_Risk_15-520.png

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender Individuals in Derbyshire 

Due to the legacy of criminalisation and discrimination, it is likely that many studies tend to underestimate the numbers of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people in the UK.  Stonewall uses the Government’s estimates to determine numbers - 5% to 7% of the population - which is considered a reasonable estimate. (www.stonewall.org.uk

On this basis, the number of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender individuals in Derbyshire could be in the region of between 50,000 and 72,000 based on the 2015 MYE. 

Religion 

Overall, 61% of the population across Derbyshire identified themselves as following the Christian religion, as at the Census 2011.  

A further 27.9% stated that they followed no religion while 7% did not state a religious preference on their Census return.  

IRMP_Community_Risk_16-520.png

IRMP_Community_Risk_17-520.png

Long Term Health Problems or Disability 

At the Census 2011, 9.5% of the population across Derbyshire indicated that they had a long-term health problem or disability that limited their day-to-day activities a lot, and lasted, or was expected to last, at least 12 months. This included problems that were related to old age.  In the City of Derby, this figure was 8.8% whilst for the County of Derbyshire (excluding the City of Derby), the figure was 9.7%. 

People were asked in the Census return to assess whether their daily activities were limited a lot or a little by such a health problem, or whether their daily activities were not limited at all. 

IRMP_Community_Risk_18-520.png

IRMP_Community_Risk_19-520.png

The data relating to those that indicated on the Census return that they had a long term health issue or disability that limited their day-to-day activities a lot can be further refined by age group and gender.

IRMP_Community_Risk_20-520.png

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IRMP_Community_Risk_22-520.png

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Future projection

In addition to the statistics that show historical and current population statistics, the Services also understands that insight into future demand can be gained from looking at projected populations for Derbyshire. It is expected that the population of Derbyshire will continue to grow, as many parts of the United Kingdom will, but notably, there will be a high than average increase in people over the age of 65 in the county. The table below shoes a summary of projected changes. 

Derby City

Age

2016

2026

% +/-

2036

% +/-

0 – 19

65,500

69,900

6.7%

70,600

7.8%

20 – 64

151,300

156,400

3.4%

159,200

5.2%

65+

41,300

48,400

17%

60,100

45.5%

Derbyshire County

Age

2016

2026

% +/-

2036

% +/-

0 – 19

170,900

178,500

4.4%

178,200

4.2%

20 – 64

449,000

444,000

-1.2%

430,100

-4.3%

65+

167,600

205,100

22.4%

250,200

49.2% 

Detailed information on future population projections can be found here.

The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015 

The English IMD 2015 is the official measure of relative deprivation in England. It ranks small areas of England relative to their deprivation, from 1 (most deprived) to 32,844 (least deprived). Areas may be referred to as falling within the most deprived 10% or 20% of a given area. 

The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) combines information from seven domains to produce an overall relative measure of deprivation. The domains are combined using the following weights: 

  • · Income Deprivation (22.5%)
  • · Employment Deprivation (22.5%)
  • · Education, Skills and Training Deprivation (13.5%)
  • · Health Deprivation and Disability (13.5%)
  • · Crime (9.3%)
  • · Barriers to Housing and Services (9.3%)
  • · Living Environment Deprivation (9.3%) 

The weights were derived from consideration of the academic literature on poverty and deprivation, as well as the levels of robustness of the indicators. For more information and guidance on IMD, please click here

Derbyshire IMD information

As a local authority area, Bolsover is ranked nationally as the 61st most deprived out of 326 local authority districts in England. The City of Derby is ranked 84th followed by Chesterfield at 85th. Ranked at 149th are Erewash followed by Amber Valley at 162nd; North East Derbyshire at 190th; High Peak at 198th; South Derbyshire at 230th and the Derbyshire Dales being the least overall deprived area ranked at 258th. 

Pockets of deprivation throughout each of the local authority areas can be identified at a more granular level of geography known as Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA).  There are 46 LSOA’s within the County that fall within the top 10% most deprived areas in England. Within the City of Derby, there are 28 LSOA’s followed by Chesterfield with 6 LSOA’s; Erewash with 4 LSOA’s; Bolsover with 2 LSOA’s; Amber Valley with 2 LSOA’s; High Peak with 2 LSOA’s; North East Derbyshire with 1 LSOA and Derbyshire Dales with 1 LSOA.

County of Derbyshire – IMD 2015

IRMP_Community_Risk_24-400.pngIRMP_Community_Risk_27-120.png

IRMP_Community_Risk_25-400.pngTop 10% Most Deprived LSOA's

 Fire Risk Assessment Methodology 

The Fire Risk Assessment Methodology (FRAM) supports the IRMP by assessing, categorising and setting out the risk to life from fire and other emergencies within Derbyshire. It illustrates our evaluation of risk which we believe the people of Derbyshire are subject to, in an easy to understand format. 

>In its previous IRMP, DFRS assessed the risk of fire to communities using a method known as the Property Fire Risk Map (PFRM). Before carrying out its evaluation of risk for this IRMP, the methodology was reviewed for suitability. It was agreed that risks to life posed by emergency special service incidents should also form part of the evaluation of risk. This is an approach taken by several other Fire and Rescue Services, and a suitable methodology has been adopted to undertake modelling from 2016. For more information this methodology, please click here. 

The new map shown below will support our focus on our stated aim of targeting our resources towards helping those who are most at risk - the objective of our Integrated Risk Management Plan (IRMP) process. 

The key to reading the map is as follows:

  • Amber areas are at proportionately greater than average risk of fire and other emergencies
  • Yellow coloured areas have an average risk from fire and other emergencies
  • Green areas are at proportionately lower than average risk of fire and other emergencies 
IRMP_Community_Risk_26-400.png

Language Translation

You can use the translation service powered by Google to translate DFRS pages into a variety of other languages.

Please note:
Translations cannot be guaranteed as exact and may include incorrect or inappropriate language. We cannot control the quality or accuracy of the Google service.

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